I will take a moment to look at the arguments on both sides of the India-China border conflict to provide readers with that important thing called CONTEXT! I will restrict myself to the border question and not going to go into issues like Global Power play etc.
Context is very important when looking at any conflict situations whether it is in International Diplomacy or managing an IT Team! It is important to look at all sides of the argument before reaching conclusions and taking a firm stand. And sometimes, just sometimes, NOT taking a decision is also a Decision! 🙂
The British were the major power in India who managed to kick out the competing Dutch and Spanish interests (Kochi, Kollam etc) and keep the Portuguese and French contained within their small principalities. The story of how the British East India company went from first minting their Indian currency in Bengal to total control over all of India in a span of 152 years is well known. This expansion was based on taking advantage of conflicts between various Indian Kings to take posession of their kingdoms. Marathas in 1819, Sikh Confederacy in 1849 and finally what remained of the Mughals in 1857 – one by one the major kingdoms fell to British expansion. The minor kings, over 800 in number, chose to make peace with the British at this time to keep some of their power in return for allowing a British “Resident” posted in their Kingdom. The British-Indian empire at this time also included Yemen in the East, Ceylon/Sri Lanka in the South as well as Burma/Myanmar in the East.
Post 1857, British power was on its peak and they used this period to “settle” the borders of the British-Indian empire. The means they used to do this, sowed the seeds of the conflicts that India has with all its neighbors – Pakistan, China, Nepal and even Burma/Myanmar! Lets look into this in a little detail beginning with the Ladakh sector in the North.
Ladakh – a short History
The area of current day Ladakh can be first traced to the Indo-Greek Kushana Empire (Emperor Kanishka) – their territory included parts of present day Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kashmir and Punjab. The major religion of the area called Ladakh, like that of the Kushanas, was Buddhism and the first recorded arrival of Chinese pilgrims was in 600AD. Chinese pilgrims would take a route that would bring them as far south as Keylong in the Lahaul Valley. The Kingdom of Ladakh at this time, called Marsul/Maryul, became a Tributary Kingdom to Tibet around this Time bound by a common link to Buddhism. The 7th century was also the period in which Ladakh transitioned from the Indian flavor of Buddhism towards the Tibetan flavor. The next 5 centuries, effective Chinese control over Tibet waxed and waned depending on the competence of the incumbent Emperor in China. However Tibetan/Chinese control over Eastern Ladakh remained strong throughout this period. Roughly, the areas north-east of Pangong were controlled by Troops from the Chinese Territory of Turkestan(Xinjiang today) while territory south of Pangong was controlled by the Tibetans who were suzerain to the Chinese Emperor. Territory West of the Ladakh Range also faced dozens of almost ritualised annual raids from the Chinese from the Northern (Xinjiang) side which were mainly for Loot and Plunder. But they failed to fully dislodge the Tibetan influence over Ladakh which was bound by strict Buddhist Religious code. Whenever a Maryul (Ladakhi) King found his position threatened, he would flee across the border to Ngari in Tibet and return to Ladakh after the Raids had subsided – a pattern that would be repeated for the next 1300 years! The reasoning behind this is simple – It was difficult, even impossible to fight any sort of sustained military campaign in these altitudes, especially east of the Ladakh Range where the altitude went upto 21000 ft ASL! Any invader who came would eventually have to leave and the King would return!
By the beginning of the 1800s, Mughal control of Punjab had all but dissappeared and the Sikh Empire had taken over most of the Possessions here. The Sikh Empire extended from Punjab in India all the way to Quetta in the West and included Kashmir. Kashmir was governed by a Hindu-Dogra Governor called Gulab Singh as part of the Sikh Empire. Gulab Singh would later betray the Sikh Empire at a crucial point in the Anglo-Sikh war and receive Kashmir as a gift from the grateful British. But that comes later! 🙂
In 1834, Gulab Singh, on instructions from the Sikh Emperor Ranjit Singh, sent one of his bravest Generals, Gen Zorawar Singh in an audacious move to grab Ladakh from Tibet. They had heard of the fratricide in the ruling families of both Ladakh and Tibet, and chinese suzerainty over Tibet, loose in the best of times was at an all time low. The Sikhs saw a fit opportunity to add Ladakh to their expanding Kingdom. Control of Ladakh would give the Sikh Empire access to the cherished Silk Road and all the riches that promised.
 |
| Gen Zorawar Singh |
Gen Zorawar approached Ladakh from the Kargil side – the traditional summer route to Ladakh back then. On receiving reports of the arrival of the Sikh troops at Khaltse, the Ladakhi King fled to Ngari and returned 3 months later. The local governor negotiated with Zorawar to allow the King back in return for an annual tribute. Zorawar built a fort in Ladakh (that stands to this day) and returned to Kashmir. The moment Zorawar and his Sikh troops exited Ladakh however, the Ladakhis went back to Tibetan suzerainty and stopped paying the annual tribute. So in 1841, Zorawar returned to Ladakh to teach the king another lesson. This time he moved on further from Leh towards North Eastern Ladakh where the Xinjiang based Chinese were effectively in control. Zorawar was supposedly retracing a route previously taken by the Sikh Guru Nanak, but he could just be following the instructions of Gulab Singh who always had his eye on this territory. Chinese and Tibetan Tax collectors were present in the Nubra Valley area as late as 1950’s! The bit about Zorawar going from Xaidullah to Mansarovar and from there to Nepal border and then to Hemkund Sahib that is mentioned in some Sikh History books is pure fiction as no historical record for that exists. However what is known for certain is that Zorawar did take the Depsang route via Nubra all the way to Xaidullah, from there to Pangong and then crossed the Chang La back to Leh before returning to Lahore. The Tibetan and Chinese Tax collectors would do what they always did – flee back to the safety of Ngari in Tibet or Khotan in Xinjiang when the Sikh Troops approached only to return after they had left. Knowing the Tibetan/Ladakhi history, Zorawar and his small band of troops established a series of “Chawkis”/Patrol Points (PPs) on the way totalling around 80 in number which he intended to man permanently through the year. The rapid decline of the Sikh Empire after 1842 however meant that Zorawar would never return to the area and these PPs remained only a theoretical idea.
The Hindu-Dogra Gulab Singh betrayed the Sikh Empire at the most crucial moment in the Anglo-Sikh war and in return received Kashmir as a gift. Effective Dogra control remained upto Leh with all territories to the North and East of the Ladakh Range remaining firmly in control of the Tibetans. From a geographical perspective this makes sense – The Ladakh Range forms a formidable and defensible barrier for Western Ladakh. Anyone who has ridden to the area can attest to the dramatically different and challenging terrain beyond the Ladakh range both to the North and towards the East. It costs India almost 10% of the Defense budget every year to just keep Khardung La and Chang La open through the year to ensure defense of the areas beyond Ladakh Range! The Tibetans had easier access roads and infrastructure on that side dating back centuries. The newly installed Hindu-Dogra Maharaja of Kashmir, who now had British backing, thought it was the opportune moment to again try his luck to grab North Eastern half of Ladakh and add it to his royal posession. Till about 1865 at least, The British were initially keen on fixing the border between the Ladakh Range and the Karakoram Range and viewed Raja Gulab Singh’s plan of drawing the border at Xaidullah/Kunlun Range with skepticism because they knew the area there was difficult if not impossible to defend. Incidentally, this original British idea of where the Border should be also aligns perfectly with the “1959 line” which the Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai had offered as a compromise in 1959! But ultimately the British went along with the greedy Maharaja because the Foreign Office felt it allowed them a new route into Central Asia. Chinese Empire at this time was fast collapsing. Chinese governor in Turkestan (today’s Xinjiang) was expelled and the British saw an opportunity. The India born geologist and surveyor William Johnson was hired to do a survey of the area east of Ladakh Range. According to his highly suspect memoirs, he travelled from Leh to the Aksai Chin area and even an unauthorised excursion to Chinese/Turkestan Khanate controlled Khotan, from there to the Pangong area and back to Leh in 18 days! Why is this suspect? As anyone who has ridden to this area can attest, this seems like a work of fiction! A journey from the Chinese military bases in Khotan to the LAC in Depsang takes over 3 days by truck TODAY over much better roads! A journey from Leh to Sasoma can take all day by motorcycle TODAY! To think that Johnson could have executed this journey without motor vehicles and with a retinue carried on a pack of mules over non-existent roads in 18 days seems like an impossible task!
Nevertheless, Johnson did return to Leh and compiled his maps which were published in 1870. This was British cartographic aggression at its best because this map established the controversial “Johnson Line” – establishing the British claim over Territory extending to the Xaidullah Patrol Point established by Zorawar Singh. This was controversial even at the time because British/Dogra physical control never went beyond the Ladakh Range. Neither China nor Tibet were in any position to challenge the British Maps but it did not matter at the time because effective control over the areas east of the Ladakh Range remained in Chinese/Tibetan hands. Technology and Infrastructure limitations of the period meant that even the British could not man the “Chowkis”/PPs year round. Infact it is a herculean task even Today! The Chinese are getting better with use of Pressurised “Eggs” etc to enable troops to man the posts through the year. Not impossible, but difficult and expensive! Effective control remained and still remains with Chinese/Tibetans because of that bitch called Geography!
However this Cartographic Aggression would set the stage for the conflict that followed. The Republican govt that came to power in China after 1912 followed the same maps as the preceding Emperor of China. The Communist Party that ousted Republicans in 1949 also stuck to the original maps and refused to accept the British drawn lines in Ladakh – or the border in Southern Tibet for that matter. India after Independence inherited these British drawn borders and felt compelled to defend them. Between 1952 and 1959, Indian PM Nehru, in an ill-advised plan called “Forward Policy”, sent Patrolling Parties far into these areas of North Eastern Ladakh known as Aksai Chin. These areas had NEVER been patrolled before in the British era even though the British had unilaterally drawn the lines on the map in 1870. Teams of British geologists and mineralogists that visited the area for research in between 1870 and 1937 took permission and logistic assistance from the Chinese Amban in Khotan! So these aggressive patrols post 1952, along with similar issues with the border with India in Southern Tibet, would set the stage for the 1962 war! China was not the superpower it is Today so it is a miracle that the Indians even managed to hold the territory they did after 1962! Chinese were fighting in favorable territory – East of the Ladakh range where they always had the advantage. Perhaps the time to accomodate the resurgent Chinese and undo the British cartographic aggression would have been in 1959 when Zhou Enlai made that offer!
Did Nehru really “surrender” Aksai Chin to the Chinese in 1962? Well, that depends on which WhatsApp group you subscribe to! 🙂 But the area known as Aksai Chin was NEVER in Indian or even British control! The British had unilaterally extended the map lines to include Territory east of the Ladakh Range as well as the Zangnan province of Tibet (which we now call Arunachal). 1962 war was fought by India to defend these lines on the map drawn by the British. Indeed, the British drew similar lines separating territory belonging to Myanmar and including it in India. Those are the states called Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland today! India would be using Indian made Gnat and French Ouragan (Toofani) aircraft to keep these other areas in Indian control well into the 60s!
North East Sector
3500 kms east of Ladakh lies the Mountainous province of Arunachal Pradesh. Most Indians may not be aware of its history the nature of the contentius dispute with China over this part. But the story here is similar to one played out in Ladakh – its origins also lie in the unilateral cartographic aggression.
By 1870, The British had not only gained complete control over all of what is now India, Pakistan and Bangladesh but also included Myanmar/Burma. The British were at this time fighting to “silence” the restive tribes of Northern Burma who were fighting a violent campaign against the British. The British attempted to silence the tribes by cutting off parts of Myanmar and adding it to territories directly administered from Kolkata – those would become the states of Manipur, Mizoram and (parts of) Nagaland now in India. But the British also wanted to take advantage of the rapidly collapsing Qing Empire in China (1645-1912) and extend its Indian-Empire to include Tibet. The British were worried about the Tibetan King’s dealings with the Russian Tsar which could threaten their Indian Empire. The Kingdoms of Sikkim and Bhutan, 2 of the “Five Fingers of Tibet” were forcibly bought under British suzerainty by 1865. By 1870, the fifth finger of Tibet, the kingdom of Monyul, started being shown as part of British-Indian survey maps even though the territory was being administered from Lhasa in Tibet and Tawang even had a year round Chinese Amban posted permanently. Even British maps were not consistent – many British maps published by other agencies still showed Monyul as part of Tibet. Post 1907, The British started calling the area NEFA – “North East Frontier Agency”. India would formally incorporate this area into its territory only in February 1987 and renamed it to “Arunachal” (Light of Dawn in Sanskrit).
The British made multiple recorded attempts in 1890, 1892, 1896 and 1902 to convince the weak Chinese Emperor to force the Tibetans, who were nominally suzerain to the Chinese emperor in Peking, to accept this new Line. But even the weak emperor refused to agree to the British terms! Finally in 1903, a British Expedition of around 3000 Sikh & Gorkha troops led by Col Younghusband was despatched to bring Tibet to heel.
 |
| Col Younghusband with Team |
The mission succeeded in bringing Tibet to heel for the time being. But the mission objective of adding Tibet to its dominions failed entirely! All the British managed was to humiliate the Chinese and drive a wedge between the Tibetans and the Chinese. The Qing Empire in China would finally collapse in 1912, and in the period of confusion that followed the Republican Takeover of China, Tibet attempted to assert its autonomy. Between 1912 and 1951, While the Republicans, Warlords, Royalists and later the Communists fought for control of China, Tibet, by reason of its relative inaccessibility, managed to maintain its autonomy without declaring independence. China was contained and the Russian entanglement with Tibet was avoided. However the larger British objective of getting Tibet to give up their control over their 5 fingers (Ladakh, Eastern Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Monyul/Zangnan/NEFA) failed entirely. The Tibetans stubbornly refused to give up their suzerainty over these areas they had held for over 1000 years. Tibetan Military continued to hold areas east of the Ladakh Range as well as in Monyul. Tibetan Tax collectors were seen in Nubra Valley and Tawang till as late as 1956!
Once the Communist party took control over China in 1949, they immediately attempted to bring Tibet back into the fold. Ladakh was formally separated from Tibetan Military sector and transferred to the Xinjiang Divisions at this time. The Tibetans were willing to return to Chinese fold with the assurance of Autonomy. But the Communists, unlike their predecessors were unwilling for anything short of complete submission. It was in this period that the Dalai Lama fled to India and with Indian encouragement, established a “Govt in Exile” in India which angered the Chinese Communist Govt and set the stage for the 1962 war. Chinese objectives were clear – reassert their historic claim over the “Five Fingers of Tibet”. Zhou En Lai (nicknamed “Chew and Lie” by Indian media of the time) especially was keen to teach India a humiliating lesson.
“Five Fingers of Tibet”
Five Fingers of Tibet is a Foreign Policy statement wrongly attributed by some Indian analysts to Chairman Mao. In reality, usage of this phrase dates back to the 13 century when Tibetan Royal chronicles used it to describe the symbiotic Religious and Ethnic connection between the people of Tibet and the 5 Tibetan tributary states of Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Monyul/Zangnan. The existence, power and prestige of Tibet depended on its symbiotic relationship with the Five Fingers from which it drew strength. The Chinese Communist Party certainly stole this comment in 1939 to define the boundaries of the China they were then fighting for with one significant modification – Monyul/Zangnan was not named by Mao in this speech and instead replaced with China because unlike the other 4 fingers, Monyul/Zangnan was directly administered by Chinese Ambans deputed from Lhasa.
Mao’s exact statement in 1939 speech:
After having inflicted military defeats on a weak China, the imperialist countries forcibly took from her a large number of states tributary to China, as well as a part of her own territory. Japan appropriated Korea, Taiwan, the Ryukyu Islands, the Pescadores, and Port Arthur; England cut Four Fingers of Tibet and took Burma and Hongkong; France seized Annam; even a miserable little country like Portugal took Macao from us. At the same time that they took away part of her territory, the imperialists obliged China to pay enormous indemnities. Thus heavy blows were struck against the vast feudal empire of China.
— Mao Zedong
Mao had merely stolen Tibetan Foreign Policy of “Five Fingers” and made it his own much like Modi steals ideas from Nehru! All crazy Dictators suffer from Kleptomania in addition to Paranoia! 🙂
In the 1800s, the British Empire was fast growing in India and from China’s perspective, had managed to sever 4 of the 5 fingers in “the lost century” preceding the Communist Takeover when China and Tibet were at their weakest. Nepal was lost when the British defeated the Nepalese in 1816 and took away half of its territory in the Treaty Of Sugauli (which today forms the Indian state of Uttaranchal). Ladakh was lost in the 1870s when the British committed their cartographic aggression. Sikkim and Bhutan were forced into British Tributary status by holding their Royal Families hostage in Darjeeling! Even Tibet was being pressured to give up Monyul – South Tibet! All this happened because China was weak and the vile Communists covered up their evil record by claiming to restore China to its former glory!
What this means for India?
Why is it important to understand the Chinese perspective? Because it gives us an idea of how the Chinese are thinking – and its important to understand your enemy before you go into Battle! China is not going to rest until they have gained back all of the Territory they lost over the “Lost Century”. This includes all of the territory to the East of Ladakh Range but not Leh itself. This includes Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal. Make no mistake about it – THEY FULLY INTEND TAKE IT BACK!
The CCP to its credit has indeed developed its economy, military and Social Indices to the point where they can call themselves a superpower. They learnt the right lessons from the 1991 Gulf War and adopted their technologies and strategies to face these challenges. The Chinese Military today is not the weak, effete military it was in 1962! These techniques and strategies will be tested to full effect in the next war with India – a sort of dry run if you will. This will not just help to prepare the Chinese military but also send a message to the rest of the World – That China has arrived on the World Stage!
Another reason to fully understand the Historical context is to understand how this Historical context ties in with the interests of the neighboring Countries. Most of the neighboring countries have a history of similar territorial disputes with India that can all be also traced directly to the same period of British expansionism in India. And I am not just talking of Pakistan here! This is especially critical, since all of these countries have now built extensive Financial, Commercial and Military links with China.
Pakistan will most certainly not be sitting out any future India vs China war. In 1962, when the Indian Army was getting a sound drubbing on the Eastern Borders, Pakistan could have marched in and taken Kashmir without a fight! Ayub Khan was convinced by the Americans back then to “sit out the war” – a mistake that they will certainly not repeat again! Indeed, they have been actively preparing for it! China and Pakistan have been practising joint operations for such an eventuality for over a decade now! The Pak and PLA Air Forces in particular have taken this joint “inter-operability” to the next level! Their military, economy links to China go back the farthest – even more so now with the CPEC corridor. Pakistan would gain Kashmir and make the kind of adjustments that China seeks in Ladakh – Stay west of Ladakh Range. Pakistan has less of an interest in maintaining control of territory to the east of the Range anyway. Another significant advantage for both – if Pakistan does get Kashmir & Western Ladakh, and China gains control of Eastern Ladakh, a new, shorter and all-weather corridor can be developed linking Tibet with Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan will most certainly not sit out a future war between India and China.
Then we have Nepal! A significant portion of Nepalese territory was forcibly annexed by the British and attached to India in the Treaty of Sugauli. Much of this territory is now the Indian State of Uttaranchal and some of it is part of the states of Bihar and UP. Many Nepalese have traditionally resented the “Big Brother” attitude of India towards Nepal. Relations have become more toxic since the Royal Family was deposed. The Modi Govt’s policy of encouraging violence in Nepal and blocking essential supplies during the Madhesi issue has also not gone down well in Nepal. It was China who stepped in to bail Nepal out then! Most Political Parties in Nepal have adopted a hardline stance with regards to India, advocating closer relations with China. The Chinese are even building a Railway to connect Nepal with Tibet! Atleast 3 political parties are even pushing a “Greater Nepal” policy – seeking a return of properties stolen by “India” with the Sugauli treaty!
Myanmar has always laid claim on the Indian states of Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland – and they have some basis to do so! The British did switch land parcels between Myanmar and the then British-India. However they had little ability or will to actually take back these territories. Myanmar has a military junta which is embedded deeply with the Chinese interests. China is their biggest economic and military partner today as well as their biggest supporter on the international stage. There is a strong possibility of Myanmar taking advantage of a India vs China-Pak war to back the territory they have claimed.
Lastly, we have Bangladesh. This one is trickier because Bangladesh has over the years moved slowly over to the liberal side and focussed on developing their booming economy – now one of the fastest growing economies in the world! However they do have territorial claims across the long border they share with India on both eastern and western side. Bangladesh has also developed close economic, military links with China which is now their biggest partner. Lastly, there is a similar political movement in Bangladesh and to a lesser extent in Indian Bengal for a united “Greater Bengal”, essentially bringing back the old “Bengal Presidency” of the British days. “Greater Bengal” would include Bangladesh and the Indian states of West Bengal, Tripura and Assam. Would Bangladesh lose the opportunity to turn this into reality. Bangladesh recently acquired a fleet of Chinese submarines and sophisticated Radar systems. Their Air Force has aircraft orders that would effectively double the number active squadrons of Combat Aircraft. The official defense plan talks of building “50% of the Combat aircraft strength” of “Big Brother” India before 2030 – with Chinese help ofcourse! J-10C and JF-17 aircraft are joining the fleet soon! Perhaps not enough to take on India on their own, but will they stay out of a conflict? Bangladesh is especially critical because they straddle the southern part of the North East Sector. In case of war, China will most certainly cut off the “Chickens Neck” – all the infrastructure they have built in Chumbi Valley, Doklam and Gyemochen sectors in past decade shows their intentions to do so! If that happens, Indian Troops in the North East will be stranded without supplies. Even if Bangladesh doesnt officially join the war, Will Bangladesh cooperate and allow Indian overflights to keep lines of communication open? India could theoretically force its way through Bangladesh but that would only open a new front! Something to consider!
Xi Jinping and his cronies mean business people! Its time to take the Chinese threat seriously! We need to understand the Historical Context before making plans to take on the Enemy! Will be writing a more detailed piece focussed on Chinese military strategies in case of war with India in the next part of this series. Thanks for Reading!
Comments
Post a Comment